This week on The Future Ear Radio Podcast, I’m joined by Carolina Milanesi, President and Principal Analyst at consumer technology market research company, Creative Strategies. In addition to her role at Creative Strategies, Carolina also founded her own company in 2019, Heart of Tech, which focuses on helping tech companies in Silicon Valley to improve their diversity efforts.
Our podcast conversation focuses on one of the biggest pieces of news coming out of Google’s I/O developer conference, which was that Google and Samsung would be unifying each of their smartwatch platforms (Samsung’s Tizen and Google’s WearOS) under one platform: Google Wear. If you also factor in Google’s acquisition of Fitbit from January of this year, we’re now looking at three key ingredients for a much more compelling and competitive wearable offering from Google.
Google provides the operating system, first party applications (i.e. Maps & YouTube Music), and Google Assistant, while Samsung provides its core competences (excellent hardware manufacturing and device proliferation), and then Fitbit brings the unique use cases built around fitness and health.
As Carolina describes, this trio of companies unified together into a cohesive offering might finally provide a truly compelling Android smartwatch option that has the potential to scale and compete head-to-head with the Apple Watch. As we discuss, the Android ecosystem desperately needs adequate peripheral devices to complement the android handsets, as Apple’s ecosystem continues to deepen its moat and switching costs via its wearables and services.
Ultimately, the battle for our wrists and the innovation birthed by Big Tech will cascade in many ways to all the other wearable form factors, including our ear-worn devices. Therefore, it’s important to observe and monitor what’s happening with wrist-worn wearables, as much of the byproducts from the war for our wrists will ultimately make its way to our ears as well.
EPISODE TRANSCRIPT
Dave Kemp:
Hi. I’m your host, Dave Kemp, and this is Future Ear Radio. Each episode, we’re breaking down one new thing, one cool new finding that’s happening in the world of hearables, the world of voice technology. How are these worlds starting to intersect? How are these worlds starting to collide? What cool things are going to come from this intersection of technology? Without further ado, let’s get on with the show. Okay. So, we are joined here today by a great guest. We have Carolina Milanesi. Carolina, tell us a little bit about who you are and what you do.
Carolina Milanesi:
Well, thank you for having me, first of all. It’s such a pleasure. I’ve been following you on Twitter and all the work that you do, especially around voice and the impact of voice on technology, and a very big fan. So, thank you for having me. I’m an industry analyst, first and foremost. I’ve been covering tech for longer than I admit because you just called me as we were getting ready seasoned, which is another way of saying I’m old.
Dave Kemp:
No! (laughter)
Carolina Milanesi:
But I have been covering tech for a while. I was at Gartner for about 14 years and then I went off to lead the US chapter of the Kantar ComTech, which is a private research company similar to Nielsen, and then I landed at Creative Strategies about five year, actually five years and a month ago. I now am working with Ben Bajarin and really looking at the impact of consumer technology on enterprise and then consumer experience for products, services, and software. I also, in 2019, created my own company called The Heart of Tech, coming out of the need of wanting to help technologies really becoming more inclusive and focusing on their corporate social responsibility effort.
Carolina Milanesi:
Not in a performative way, but really thinking about the impact both on society, but also on their bottom line, the business bottom line of being more inclusive, being more diverse, and really focusing on their talent, and tech for good. Technology can make a great deal of impact on society, both good and bad, and it requires intentionality when you’re bringing services and technology to market.
Dave Kemp:
Well, thank you so much for sharing that and it’s such an honor to have you here today. I saw too that you were recently promoted at Creative Strategies to president, so congrats on that. That’s really, really exciting.
Carolina Milanesi:
Thank you.
Dave Kemp:
So, before we really get into the basis of this conversation, I do want to actually stick on Heart of Tech a little bit because I think this is really fascinating. So, you started this in 2019 and you mentioned before we started recording that you write a number of Forbes articles and it pertains to this. So, how has this been going? What are some of the takeaways from, I guess you’re now in year two if it? What’s the experience been like so far with this endeavor?
Carolina Milanesi:
It’s been really good. Some of the clients are the same clients that I deal with at Creative Strategies. I try and do some pro bono work as well for smaller organizations that really are trying to make a difference, especially when it comes to diversity and inclusion and education. So, speaking engagement and things like that. But for me, the biggest difference that I’ve seen because of the pandemic has really been a shift from that performative that I was talking about just a minute ago where people thought that they needed to have something about CSR and check a box to actually wanting to make a difference. Right? So, the conversations have changed a lot about help us do this vs. help us tell the story or talk about it, and that’s been phenomenal.
Carolina Milanesi:
Also, I think that what I find fascinating is that there’s a big interconnection between employee engagement and satisfaction and discussions around the future work and hybrid work and corporate social responsibility in a way of really putting people first, in a way of thinking about the impact that remote work could have on diversity and inclusion, and also thinking about policy and the impact that you can have, especially big tech. Of course, if you follow tech, the large organizations are not seen very positively right now. Right? So, I think that there’s a moment of wanting, yes, on one side, get the politicians off our back, but also regaining the trust of consumers and people overall. So, it’s a good time to focus on that impact that you can have on society.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. I love how you said too there about how it’s moving away from it just being performative and actually becoming something that’s a lot more meaningful. So, as somebody that’s not based in Silicon Valley, I don’t have the real world experience that you do. But to hear that somebody like you is really championing all of those efforts, I just think is so cool. It definitely does speak to, I think, the hope that we’ll move into a phase where this will become the type of thing that is actually something that, at large, these major massive companies are implementing. So, that’s really, really exciting to hear.
Dave Kemp:
So, the reason that I wanted to have you on today was because we just saw at Google’s I/O Conference some pretty interesting news around wearables, and because wearables are a big theme of Future Ear and of this podcast, hearables being a small subset of the wearables ecosystem, you wrote an awesome piece for Creative Strategies, and after reading it, I was like, “I need to get you on,” because I thought you just had a lot of really good insight. So, I guess my first question is with this announcement of Google and Samsung banding together and almost creating an alliance where Samsung had their wearable smartwatch platform, Tizen, and then Google had Wear OS, and now they’re going to be merging the two into what they were referring to as Wear. So, I guess my first question to you is, I guess, are we finally seeing a really true Apple Watch competitor starting to emerge?
Carolina Milanesi:
I sure hope so because I really think that the Android ecosystem is craving something similar to the Apple Watch plus iPhone solution. Right? I don’t want to be particularly negative on Samsung because I think that from a hardware perspective, they’ve come a very long way from where they started, and especially the latest iterations of the Galaxy Watch being the closest thing for me to an Apple Watch experience. What was letting down the full experience, though, where little moment of friction between what was clear, a need or a want for Samsung to create their own ecosystem, and then Google.
Carolina Milanesi:
So, when I use Android, and I always make it very clear, my main device is an iPhone and it has been since 2007, but because of my job, obviously I used all different kind of devices. It’s been the past, I would say, year and a half to two years, that moving across iPhone and Android has become way easier for me than it used to be. Because of how much I use Google services, there’s also desire to actually use Google more. The Apple Watch has always been one of the reason why I couldn’t see myself moving away from the iPhone. Now there are other things like Apple Card, which is quite pertinent to the conversation that I was listening to Tim Cook on the stand this morning. Do you make it hard for consumers to move away? Well, no, not intentionally, but yes by delivering products that tie you in.
Carolina Milanesi:
I think that that’s what’s missing on the Android side. Right? The idea of having that phone and watch. For Samsung, it worked to some extent, but then that friction of not having some services, something as simple as Google Assistant was not the default for quite some time as your voice assistant. Right? Things like that that you can see that friction creeping up and not giving the user the best that they could get, or little things like the lack of integration of Maps. One of the things that I find extremely delightful when I drive because I’m Italian. I drive in California. I still drive like an Italian. So, my turns and all these things are maybe not as fluid as Californians have them. I mean that little tap on my wrist that-
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. Exactly [crosstalk 00:10:08].
Carolina Milanesi:
… exactly tells me, “Oh, changing lane.” Something as easy as that, and that you don’t have those moment of delight on the other side because there’s not that vertical integration. That’s what I’m looking for. The integration of the services, better apps, more apps. Obviously, with Tizen plus Wear OS and some Fitbit sprinkled on top, because there’s that component too, I think you’re going to end up with a much more enticing experience.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. I completely agree. You said a few things there that were really interesting. I love, first of all, that you mentioned the lock-in that the Apple Watch creates. I’ve been wearing an Apple Watch, I think, since the first or the second generation. So, it’s been four or five years now. There is definitely something to that because it’s one of the first things I do in the morning is I put on my watch and I really do love all of the ways in which my watch complements my phone. To your point, I think that is something that Google didn’t recognize early on. I don’t think they recognized that if I did decide to switch over to Android, that would also imply that I’d have to switch over my watch too. So, it does create a further lock-in there, and AirPods, I think, has made that even more pronounced.
Dave Kemp:
So, I think that the Apple wearables, and now the service offering that is layered in between the smartphone and the wearables, is very much making it very difficult, I think, for Google to entice people away from it, whereas on the introverted side with Apple trying to poach Google away, it’s not as challenging because you’re just really trying to pull people away from, say, just their Android smartphone. So, I think there’s a lot to be said there. Something that I saw recently was, I was looking through some of the statistics of adoption, and what I saw, I looked at a couple different consumer or research companies, and I’d be curious if this is consistent with what you all at Creative Strategies have found, but it looks like Apple Watch is now north of 100 million people wearing the device, and it’s about 30 million that are being added per year.
Dave Kemp:
So, this is a really, really large user base of users, and again, if you think about it as part of that lock-in, it seems to be really this gigantic moat that Apple has created, and I think that in order for Google to really be compelling from an ecosystem standpoint, they need to have a compelling smartwatch as well.
Carolina Milanesi:
Yeah. I agree, and I think that they started early in the market, but quite confused. To be honest with you, even Apple was confused at the beginning. Right? They had a very different idea of what Apple Watch was going to do and what it’s become now. Right? For Apple, it was more of that luxury jewelry piece. For Google, was, well, we’re going to give you a phone on the wrist. So, the first attempt was really replicating the phone, and that wasn’t it. Right? I don’t want the same things that I do on my phone to get on my wrist, as the same as I don’t want to do on my PC everything I do on my phone.
Carolina Milanesi:
I think that it’s taken a while for the industry to realize that, and I think part of that was just the, oh, my God, are we going to sell as many watches as we sell phones? Right? That was the very narrow-minded way to look at the market and say, “Well, everybody has a phone will have a watch,” and that’s not true. The market is not going to be as big, but I think it is valuable and it does capture the most engaged users on one end, and on the other, I see a lot of similarities to the relationship with the iPad vs. the PC. Those cases where you want kind of a low tech, but useful device. I think that’s the other part that, to me, has changed a lot when it comes to wearable, being smartwatches, trackers, or earables is the fact that these are now truly platforms. They’re not accessory anymore.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. I love that, the whole notion of a platform, and I think that, as somebody that’s been really following this closely, the two of us have been, is that you’ve seen, it’s just like you said. When Apple introduced the Apple Watch, it was a totally different mentality that they had as to were this fits into the market. It was positioned as a luxury item. So, I think that this idea of these devices becoming platforms, there was a maturation period that needed to occur for use cases that were specific to these devices. I think the fitness and the health applications are a perfect example for the wrist worn wearables because initially, it was these rudimentary fitness, like you could gather step tracking and stuff like that.
Dave Kemp:
But as time has gone on, we’re seeing that these now are use cases that are really specific to that type of modality that you can’t capture from, say, the phone, and now I think we’re going to see that with the ear worn devices as well, starting with it just being a conduit to the audio internet and that burgeoning world, but in addition to that, being a home for your voice assistant. So, I do think that there’s a lot to be said about this where yes, they initially are positioned, and I think the value proposition for the user is around it being a complementary device to your smartphone, is the smartphone is almost like the mothership, but there’s now a lot of really interesting things that are starting to emerge around very specific use cases that the phone can’t support on its own.
Dave Kemp:
So, this is where I think that the ecosystem play really comes into effect because one of the themes that I’ve talked a lot about on this podcast that I think Google now has the pieces to do as well is around, with the health tracking, is with Apple, you have Apple Health as being the big data repository where all that data is captured. So, now you see the pieces falling into place for Google to have the same thing where at first, they buy Fitbit and then now they unify these platforms together so that the Android smartphone, or smartwatch ecosystem starts to permeate. You have that same element where Google Health can capture and serve as the repository of all this information that’s being captured.
Dave Kemp:
So, the specific use cases for the watch, I think Google now is realizing they need to facilitate an ecosystem similar to Apple so that they can position themselves in such a way where a lot of this is, I think, becoming more and more compelling to people as they realize that the benefit of having something like a smartwatch and wearing one for an extended period of time is you really start to build a longitudinal data health set and there’s a lot of really interesting information that can be gleaned off the top of that.
Carolina Milanesi:
I couldn’t agree more. I think that even the idea, we talk about apps because we always talk about apps and compare the size of app stores and all of that. But I do think that even just the ideas change over time. It’s not the quantities, the quality, and there are a few things that tie people in. So, I don’t expect, even from some of the things where Google has said, “We’ll come out to this merger,” one is application will load 30% faster, they want to have better UI, which is all helpful, but it’s really about core components that are sensor gathering data for your health and fitness and then your key services that you’re using. I think that that’s what is going to, at the end of the day, appeal to the broad majority of people.
Carolina Milanesi:
Then you’re going to have other things that maybe are a little bit more niche of some application that people use. There’s no question in my mind that wearables have become, Apple Watch specifically and now the opportunity on the other side, because I think Fitbit tried and they obviously have a very loyal core base that subscribe to their services and get a lot of information. But they probably can benefit from the extra strength that comes from being part of Google to do the kind of things that Apple has been doing with relationship with key device providers for gyms, equipment providers that now tie into your Apple Watch, with big brands like Peloton and so forth to have a better experience.
Carolina Milanesi:
It’ll be interesting to see if we see Google moving to an Apple Fitness+ kind of services or not. I think that they could easily partner with more brands out there. They don’t necessarily have to have their own service. But there’s definitely a business to Google services too if you’re thinking that already they talked about YouTube Music integration and how you can play music from offloading it onto the watch so you don’t have to have a phone, or the ability to use Google Maps without a phone. So, there’s clearly increased stickiness to the ecosystem that having a strong watch platform will bring to Google. There’s no question.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. I totally agree with that and I think that you look at those three entities, Samsung, Google, and Fitbit. So, Google, it’s sort of the yin to the Apple yang. So, you have the Android and you have the iOS duopoly. So, then you have what does Samsung bring to the table? They provide the hardware. Then you have Fitbit as one of the really compelling use cases that can be layered into this. So, it seems to me that this really is sort of an alliance of how do we combat Apple’s dominance in this space, and I think that it’s kind of a oh, shoot moment where they’re recognizing that as Apple further cements their lock-in in the ecosystem of the peripheral devices, it just makes that just a more defensible position with the core being the handset.
Dave Kemp:
I think as the wearables narrative continues to evolve and we eventually get into AR and maybe something like glasses or something like that, the question is going to, I think, be are there comparable offerings in a comparable ecosystem? I think that Google is playing a little bit of catch-up now, but I think that by utilizing these partners and working as an alliance of sorts, it seems to me like they can catch up somewhat quickly. I love what you mentioned too of one of the big advantages that Google has are their first party services. Google Maps is a perfect example of this. Again, let’s say that you’re working out or something like that. If you can start to have offline mode for Spotify, YouTube Music, in addition to Google Maps, who are you really catering to there? Maybe it’s the person that’s going out on a run in a new city or something like that.
Dave Kemp:
So, that’s where this starts to, I think, get really exciting is that as a big Android fan, for example, you would be able then to get the best of the Android world without having to sacrifice anything that Apple per se would have. I think that’s going to be the goal here for Android is to reach parity with Apple on the wearables front just so that their ecosystem is just as compelling, if not eventually potentially more when you layer in some things like Google Assistant and Maps and a lot of the advantages that I think Google has inherently right now.
Carolina Milanesi:
Yeah, and I think for Samsung, as I mentioned earlier, their hardware is great. They have some differences, the rotating bezel, for instance, that is their signature instead of using the crown like Apple does. They have come up with some interesting design choices. The quality obviously, it’s Samsung, so it’s good quality. We know that. But not having to worry about creating and nurturing a developer community and continuing … Obviously, Tizen is still in their TVs, but what you develop for a TV is different than what you develop for a watch. So, overall, I think this is a good move for them. I think that in general, Samsung is pointing to a tighter integration with Google services. It seems that the change at the top level from DJ Koh to TM Roh has brought a different focus, or maybe a refocus, on hardware vs. software and services, which was more of DJ’s core competence.
Carolina Milanesi:
This is not necessarily a bad thing. It’s not that Samsung will not be able to continue to differentiate. They can do that on top. Right? They can layer something that when you have a Samsung phone and a Samsung watch, there are going to be different things that can happen that add extra value. So, there’s still room there for differentiation. It will be interesting to see when and if a Pixel watch comes out. The rumor seems to be still strong. It’d be interesting to see if it’s going to be a high end device or a mid-range device, whether there’s some kind of agreement between Samsung and Google as to which market goes where and where everybody focuses so that the ecosystem wins. Clearly, Samsung has brought quite a bit to the table with their install base of users. So, surely, there is a quid pro quo happening there in some kind of way.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. Well, I was going to ask you because in your piece that you wrote on the heels of this announcement, you made a really interesting comment about Samsung in leadership, and you just alluded to it there, but I would love to expand on this a little bit more about, so you had DJ Koh there and now you have TM Roh. Can you just expand on this a little bit about the key differences that you see?
Carolina Milanesi:
Yeah. DJ Koh had been leading at Samsung the partnership and ecosystem and software play before he became the lead for Samsung mobile across the board and then electronics. He knows software, he knows partnership, he knows the importance of being able to differentiate with services on top of hardware. I think when he started, there was still an opportunity for Samsung to play a role there, and then the market went a different way. I think TM Roh is, I would equate him almost to Tim Cook. He’s a supply chain guy. He’s, is very close to the hardware and the operational side of the business and I think that that’s what he thinks that they need to focus on and where they differentiate.
Carolina Milanesi:
We’ve seen them, for instance, under his leadership, just this month, start showing a much bigger interest in the PC market and becoming more aggressive there, and so is clearly looking at opportunities to add more devices and playing a similar game that Apple has for a long time, which is give more devices to the same users so that they become more engaged, more loyal, and get more out of the ecosystem. I think the services play, it’s hard to win in as many market as Samsung is in. They obviously own Korea and they can do different things in Korea the same way as Apple owns the US and they can do different things in the US when it comes to services. Right? But going out and launching a music service or whatever you want from a content perspective becomes much harder when you have to do deals country by country.
Dave Kemp:
Do you get the sense that under TM Roh, and like you said, more of a supply chain oriented mindset, in looking at, yes, Google just seems to always be stop, go, stop, go with their hardware efforts, and I always wonder, it seems like the marriage there is more Samsung the hardware provider, that’s where their core competence really is, and Google’s is with search obviously as being the big one, but in all their first party services. I really do think that Google Assistant will be the brain. It will be the successor of Android in many ways. It will be the operating system.
Dave Kemp:
So, it seems like these two would work really well and I’m curious because you had mentioned will we see a Pixel watch? I do think that’s very possible because clearly, that seems to be in the direction that Google’s going, which is they are interested in making their own hardware. But I always come back to this and I wonder, in your opinion, would it make more sense, or would you expect us to see Apple, or I’m sorry, Google continuing down their own hardware path? Or do you think that we’re ultimately headed to a reversion again back to where Android is, this software and the service provider and Samsung’s the hardware provider by and large?
Carolina Milanesi:
Yeah. I don’t think they’re quite in a position to put all their eggs in a basket with Samsung. I don’t think that would be wise. So, I do continue to think that simply because initially, with the Nexus project, it was about a reference design. Then with Pixel, it became, no, we are really into the hardware and we want to do the hardware. I think now it’s become harder per services, plus in other hardwares. So, that ecosystem of devices, whether they do it under their own brand or, so Pixel, or they continue to use the NeSs brand, they will continue to use the Fitbit brand. That makes it easier to then add Samsung for some things, but I doubt that they’ll give up Pixel quite yet.
Carolina Milanesi:
I think the comment I made earlier about services and content and the difficulty of doing it across markets is the same comment I can make about hardware. So, Samsung knows very well how to sell in all the markets that they sell. Google is not quite there yet with Pixel. They still only have some pockets. They’re not in the same league as Samsung. So, being tactful and strategic about which markets to focus on, I think, is the other part when you’re looking at Pixel. I also think the market has changed a lot from when the whole Pixel started because we don’t have … If you look at the US market, it used to be that Samsung and Apple were leading because they were leading. Right? Now, it’s like, well, because there’s really no one else other than OnePlus and TCL from a volume perspective, maybe a little bit of Motorola that’s left, and GE’s is out now.
Carolina Milanesi:
So, even from a geographical perspective when you’re looking at worldwide, it’s really Samsung as a non-Chinese brand that is holding up the Android ecosystem and then everybody else pretty much is Taiwanese or Chinese. That has implications on where you’re going to see products and how diverse your ecosystem is going to be. Obvious, I think that Google has to make sure that Samsung is not the only options that they have.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. You said that so well because you’re right, where even in, I guess it’s probably a matter of five years or so, it has. The handset market really went from being fragmented, and you did have Apple and Samsung leading. But I remember HTC, LG, all these different brands, they’re nowhere to be seen anymore. Other than some of these upstart big Chinese brands that are definitely huge globally, it does seem, like you said, Google has this huge imperative to play nice with Samsung because it’s the dominant provider of Android. So, it seems to me that, again, those two, it will be very interesting in my opinion to see where things go because like you mentioned, yes, Google with its Pixel hardware, they’ve done a decent job, but it’s nowhere near the size of Samsung or Apple in terms of unit volume. So, again, I come back to this of Samsung is almost like the, it’s the embodiment of Android in hardware form.
Carolina Milanesi:
Absolutely. Yeah.
Dave Kemp:
So, I just think of, as we move and we see Google move into their own peripheral plays, I think of, with even the ear worn devices, Pixel Buds have failed to take off and I know Galaxy Buds have done quite well.
Carolina Milanesi:
They have. Yeah. Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Dave Kemp:
A lot of that is because of the fact that is, or I’m sorry, Samsung is able to package their headphones with their handset device, and there’s a lot to be said about that. I think they went from zero to 10% of the market or something to that effect through the introduction of the Galaxy 9 or something like that with the first generation of Galaxy Buds. So, it’s a very effective strategy in terms of proliferating devices.
Carolina Milanesi:
Yeah, and they obviously acquire Harman. So, there’s a lot there that they acquire from a patent perspective and just knowledge around sound and so with AKG in there. So, I think that Samsung has done great improvements on the Galaxy Buds over the years and again, I’m expecting that with the next version, we’ll see a deeper integration of Google Assistant vs. Bixby, and that will help. On the buds, I have to say, on the Pixel Buds, I was quite impressed with the second iteration. It was a great improvement and obviously, like I said, if you are using Google Assistant quite often throughout your day, it’s such a sweet implementation. But the reality is that on the Android side, there are way more earbuds that support natively Google Assistant than smartwatches and smart band’s offering.
Carolina Milanesi:
So, I think the buds are less of a critical part for Google than necessarily the watch. Right? So, it’d be interesting to see where they prioritize. I would still argue that there are certain things like the live translation service that they demoed onstage I think three years ago. It is very compelling. But because everything is open and I don’t think that hardware manufacturers from an earable perspective think about anything but selling the buds, it’s just the hardware sale. If you’re thinking about Jabra, if you’re thinking about Plantronics, now Poly, of if you’re thinking about, God, even Bose, there’s no intentionality from an ecosystem perspective of wanting to compete with Google Assistant.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. I fully agree. I think that Google has a few crown jewels. But the one that I think is the most intriguing as to, especially in terms of how it really can be compelling relative against Apple, I think that’s one of the biggest gaps they actually have is that I think Google Assistant is far superior to Siri.
Carolina Milanesi:
Absolutely.
Dave Kemp:
In terms of its sheer capabilities, Siri does a decent job with its ability when it comes to native Apple services and some of the different ways in which you can control different Apple devices and things like that. But Google Assistant really seems to be an area that I wouldn’t be surprised if Google really makes that the big piece that they offer in terms of all, like you said, these third party providers. As that continues to expand, I just think that is an area. Again, we’re talking about how does Google appeal to maybe the people that have been longtime iPhone users in the same way that Apple was constantly trying to pick off Google users and bring them into their ecosystem? I think Google, that one of their primary mechanisms will be Google Assistant. So, I think that’s going to be interesting to see here in the coming years as that continues to mature.
Carolina Milanesi:
Absolutely, and I think that you mentioned AR, VR earlier and I think that that’s going to be the other part there where we’ll see watches, smart worn devices. I’m a big fan of Oura Ring that I’ve been wearing now for a couple of years. But also, earbuds, how those become a component of, if you’re thinking about ambient computing. But it’s going to be, I don’t know what they’re going to call it, if it’s human computing or whatever. But it’s what you wear and these devices playing together to give you an enhanced experience, and I think that’s other part that is probably on top of mind for Google going forward is all these devices play in an augmented reality or virtual reality world.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. So, I guess as we come down to the close here, I’m curious about your thoughts on, you just mention AR and VR. It seems like we just saw with the Snap Summit yesterday that they’re introducing this. It seems like it’s going to be a long road to where this really all starts to become materialized in the market and it sees serious adoption. But what’s your thoughts on what Apple’s going to be introducing? I’m curious to get your take on this year’s WWDC and just, I guess, in the short term horizon of wearables in general, any single modality that you have, what’s your overall thinking here that, whether we’ve already covered it today or something that we haven’t talked on yet? I’m just curious to get your overall take on where this space is going now that we really are starting to see Google coming into its own with its own real compelling offering, it seems. So, you will have, it looks like, maybe a little bit of another duopoly of these two, and I’m just curious to get your thoughts on the way this whole space might shake out over the next few years.
Carolina Milanesi:
Yeah. I think that from a wearable perspective that the two things that, to me, will matter most to consumers are going to, one, continue the fitness and health side of things and more actually switching from fitness to health. So, really learning more about your own body and how to stay healthy, or to prevent anything that … even if it’s just the flu. Right? The idea that my ring can tell me if my body temperature has changed over the course of a week, and not just because of COVID, but in general, you want to keep an eye on things like that and how well you sleep and all of it. So, I think that part, health and how these are going to become more integrated with our insurance services, corporations, and tracking, I don’t know. When you start to say the word track, people freak out. But it’s a good thing, in a good way.
Carolina Milanesi:
Just monitoring. I don’t know if it sounds any better than tracking, but anyway. Just being more aware, increasing your awareness of what is good and what isn’t for you from a health perspective. The other part that I think I’m interested in and I think is going to be a big focus is the idea of ambient computing and really thinking about the data that you collect and the data that has been analyzed and how devices work together. I don’t know where we’re going to land with AR and VR. I’m not a great fan of VR just because the experience, to me, is, I don’t know, I think it’s a personal thing. There’s a combination of points that I can list. One, I’m very shortsighted, and so I think I work extra hard to focus when I’m in VR. Second, I’m also a control freak. So, not being able to know what’s going on around me makes me uncomfortable.
Carolina Milanesi:
So, I think I can do half an hour, 45 minutes, and then I’m exhausted. But I have done a couple of experiences this year with holographic displays, like HoloLens, and then [inaudible 00:42:00] where I attended events and did brainstorming meetings. I have to say, I’ve started to see an interest of the future. How far away we are with things like feeling natural for the majority of the population is the biggest question and I don’t think this is going to be a two to three year. I think this is going to be a five to 10 year window. But there’s no doubt in my mind that especially the audio piece is going to become much more important going forward. I think about the ability also to augment reality in that way with sound where if I using certain earbuds, I have the ability to hear better or to [inaudible 00:42:46] some noises vs. others. There’s a lot of opportunity there and I do think that sound is such an integral part of your overall experience with something that I think we’ll see more and more people really focusing on that.
Dave Kemp:
Wow. I could not agree more with you. I think those are great points. I love what you said about both of them, but the first one with preventative health, could not agree more. I think that we’re going to see, it really is going to be, I think, an evolution of, it started as a glorified pedometer that tracked your steps to it’s like what … I remember this podcast that I’d listened where Marc Andreessen was being interviewed and they asked, it was Tyler Cowen and he asked him, “What are you expecting on the horizon for wearables?” He said two things. He said, “I think audio’s going to be titanically important.” So, to your point, I agree. I think that audio’s going to be just huge. I think we’re at the beginning stages of it, which is kind of crazy because it’s been around for a while, but-
Carolina Milanesi:
That’s right.
Dave Kemp:
… we’re seeing so much momentum in this area, new formats of content. It’s starting with podcasts and then audiobooks and now social audio and it’s really an exciting space. But the other one that he said was the idea of your Apple Watch or whatever alerting you that you’re about to have a stroke. I can’t get that thought out of my mind because to your point, this started to become a little bit validated in the market during COVID where obviously, there’s a lot of clinical trials that would need to be done. But even anecdotally, you saw people citing, “My heart rate variability went up and then, lo and behold, I tested positive a day later.” So, you’re literally getting people that are showing before their symptoms are appearing their smartwatch, and I think this is the beginning of it is being able to detect that.
Dave Kemp:
So, I think that, talk about a really killer compelling use case is when you have the ability to be notified that you’re getting sick, that you have a chronic illness, any number of these things where you really do have … that that’s why Apple continues to tout the watch as a guardian of health, and you had Tim Cook go on CNBC two years ago and they asked him point blank, what’s going to be Apple’s contribution, and he said health. It’s like, wow, okay. This is really interesting. So, I agree with you. I think that wearables are, I think, going to be very much a health device, really, and to your point, there’s going to be some very interesting things that come out of this around what does that mean from a health insurance standpoint. All of the concerns around data tracking and monitoring, that’s going to open a huge can of worms. So, there’s a lot of really exciting upside and I think that there’s going to be a lot of ethical discussions that come along with this too.
Carolina Milanesi:
Absolutely, and legal too. Right?
Dave Kemp:
Legal too. Yeah.
Carolina Milanesi:
I think there’s definitely going to be more of that from an insurance perspective or a [inaudible 00:45:54] perspective will need to be done.
Dave Kemp:
Yeah. So, point being is that I do think as a tech analyst that’s been through some of these different S curves and all kinds of different adoption cycles, what do you think? Pretty exciting times right now? What’s your overall sense of the market and tech in general right now?
Carolina Milanesi:
It is exciting. If you followed Google I/O this week, some of the technology that they showed from language and AI to cameras and being able to use cameras to detect skin cancer and abnormalities with your skin to quantum computing, there is so much potential, but there’s so much risk as well. Definitely, I think were at the point where tech has to gain that trust back from consumers because the stakes are too high going forward. So, I need to trust that will I see and I can validate in some way or another today is ethical before I can trust AI engines that I can’t even understand. Right? I think that’s why some of the work that I do with organizations around bias and explainability and transparency and all the work about social corporate justice, not just responsibility, are going to become even more important.
Dave Kemp:
I couldn’t agree more, and I love what you said too, the stakes are getting higher, that the opportunity is as big as it’s ever been, and the upside is there. But I could not agree with you more that tech has to really have its come to Jesus moment where it really does recognize there’s a fundamental break in the trust and you can’t just operate off the assumption that people will choose to use your services because they have no other option. I love all your work that you’re doing around the Heart of Tech and making it more of a humane element to this, because that’s what this is about.
Carolina Milanesi:
Absolutely. It is. What is tech without heart, right?
Dave Kemp:
Right. I love that. Well, Carolina, thank you so much for joining me. This has been a wonderful discussion. Thanks for everybody who tuned in here to the end, and we will chat with you next time. Cheers. Thanks for tuning in today. I hope you enjoyed this episode of Future Ear Radio. For more content like this, just head over to futureear.co where you can read all the articles that I’ve been writing these past few years on the worlds of voice technology and hearables and how the two are beginning to intersect. Thanks for tuning in and I’ll chat with you next time.
